Nobody Knows Anything: Why Forecasting Records Are So Poor We have a confession to make. Tucked away in our shared drive is a dusty spreadsheet titled ‘Expert Predictions 2008’. It is a graveyard of hubris. It contains quotes from prominent analysts insisting that the subprime crisis was “contained,” that oil would hit $200 a barrel,…
Tulip Mania: What the Actual Records Show If you think you know the story of Tulip Mania, there’s a strong chance you’ve been sold a Victorian fairy tale. We picture Dutch merchants hurling themselves into canals after losing fortunes on flower bulbs, an entire nation brought to its knees by floral speculation. The reality, sitting…
Reading a Balance Sheet Alongside Cash Flow: Our Guide to Seeing the Full Picture We remember staring at the screen in 2018, watching a major UK construction firm’s share price evaporate. The company had reported a respectable profit just months earlier, yet here it was, drowning in debt and unable to pay its bills. That…
The Silent Killer: How Fees Compound Over Decades Picture two school friends from Birmingham, both born in 1955. At age 30, in 1985, they each inherited £50,000. Both decided to invest in the UK stock market for their retirement. The first, let’s call him David, walked into a high-street bank and was sold a managed…